16.2% increase in Foreclosures from 1st Q to 2nd Q, See the OCC and OTC Mortgage Metrics Report here!

{ Posted on 2:54 PM by JR Erickson }
Download now or preview on posterous
MortgageReport0930.pdf (345 KB)

16.2% rise in foreclosures from 1st quarter to 2nd quarter 2009.  Loan modification, Loss mitigation actions are on the rise.  There has been a rise in Principal reduction mods from 3% to 10% in the second Quarter.  The percentage of prime loans that was seriously delinquent totaled 3.0 percent, a 10.5 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 13% increase from a year ago.  Take a look at this report, its in pdf format, make sure you click the download button under the preview iPaper screen.  Leave a comment, or send me and email to me at jeremy@jrerickson.com



Jeremy Erickson
(208) 991-3606 direct
(208) 379-5717 fax

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Notice of Sale and Notice of Default filings are High this week, See the trends here!

{ Posted on 7:44 PM by JR Erickson }
The notice of defaults recorded this week are at the third highest (at 139) level since  I started tracking them back in the first part of June.  I assumed that it would be high just because of the passed trends.  Its seems like we get them in spurts, and then they go way down.  The Notice of Sales reported this week (108) is at the highest level since June 28th.  I am guessing from what I have seen so far is that we will have a continued upward trend in the Notice of sales, compared to the last three months.  Some of the banks are starting to process some of the pent-up inventory that has been sitting there for the past year.  I was reading the WSJ, and some of the numbers of the current loans that are in default that haven't been processed yet for the foreclosure proceedings were at very high levels.  I said this in an earlier post that there was 1.2 million of those loans that haven't even started in the distressed pipeline, because of the banks are waiting to see if they can qualify them for Loan Mods, or other bank "workout programs" that are available.  Soon as they become disqualified they move them into the foreclosure process.  To qualify for some of those programs, you need to fit a certain criteria, and the banks are coming to realize that most of the people can't even make the first cut.   
      Here are the current charts for the NOD's and NOS's in Ada county for the past 3 months.  Click on the bottom link to go to the Distressed Property Reports Page.to download free copies of the current recipients for the NOD's and NOD's.



You can always go to AdaCountyMarketReport.com and click on "Distressed Property Reports Pages" on the right hand column.  

thanks

Jeremy Erickson

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

How to Land a Foreclosure House - WSJ.com

{ Posted on 9:40 AM by JR Erickson }

Buying a foreclosure home often is appealing to house hunters trying to stretch their dollars. But finding a good one can be a challenge.

"The vast majority of the banks don't want us to advertise [foreclosure homes] as 'bank-owned' because it comes with a negative connotation," says Ryan Melvin, co-owner of More Realty Group in Las Vegas.

[Marketwatch] Tom Bloom

That means there's no sign on the front lawn indicating that it's a bank-owned house. And a buyer probably won't find a property advertised as a foreclosure in marketing materials, says Mr. Melvin, who specializes in real-estate owned properties, or REOs, those that have been reclaimed by a bank, typically after an unsuccessful foreclosure auction.

Where to Find Them

So, if you're considering the purchase of a home that's owned by a bank, you'll need to do some homework.

One option: Go straight to the bank. Banks' Web sites will list properties that the financial institution has reclaimed. To find a list, do a Web search for "REO" and the name of the lender. Contact information for the property's listing agents is usually provided for each entry.

For a fee, other sites will hunt down properties for you. RealtyTrac.com, which helps people find foreclosure and pre-foreclosure properties, charges $49.95 a month, after a free seven-day trial. The company also recently launched BankHomesDirect.com, which charges $19.95 per month and lets people search just for REOs.

Foreclosures.com charges $49.95 per month, after a free seven-day trial.

You also can enlist the help of an experienced real-estate agent. Someone who works regularly with REOs might be able to track down the properties more easily than a traditional agent. The National REO Brokers Association has a searchable database of brokers on its site, nrba.com. The REO Network, reonetwork.com, offers a free listing of real-estate agents specializing in REOs.

Get a Thorough Inspection

When shopping around for a foreclosure property, it's important to know just how much work you're in for -- and how much it's going to cost you. Foreclosure homes are in various states of disrepair; some fixes are cosmetic, while others can be extensive.

Sometimes, people set their sights on bank-owned properties "like the word 'foreclosure' equals 'good deal,' " says Mark Goldman, a mortgage broker with Cobalt Financial and a real-estate lecturer at San Diego State University. But that's not always true.

Lenders aren't held to the same disclosure requirements as sellers who have lived in the home, mainly because the lender hasn't occupied the home to notice leaks or other problems. So an inspection is crucial.

"If there are lessons out of the last couple of years, it's certainly buyer beware," says Dan Steward, president of home-inspection firm Pillar to Post, which has a U.S. headquarters in Tampa, Fla.

"We have all heard the stories of people ripping the copper pipe and wiring out. People have literally gone to the light switch, disconnected the wire from the switch box and have pulled the wire through the drywall," Mr. Steward says. Some have ripped out toilets and kicked in walls or left faucets running before vacating the house, often out of anger.

While you don't need an inspector to tell you that the toilet is missing, he or she can tell you if there is damage 20 feet down the water line because of the way the toilet was ripped out, Mr. Steward says.

Other issues could pop up due to the property being vacant. Large banks will often hire a service to cut the grass, shovel the snow and winterize a home. But when homes aren't occupied, it's harder to catch small problems before they become big ones.

Come Prepared

To increase your chances of getting your offer accepted and having a quick closing process, have all paperwork and requirements in order before making an offer, says Duane Andrews, chief executive of Clear Capital, which provides valuation products for the mortgage and lending industries.

That includes having any financing approved and writing a clean offer -- not asking for minor repairs, for example.

Most bank-owned properties are sold "as is," Mr. Melvin says, so if there is something you want fixed, it's best to just factor that into the price you're offering.

But don't expect to bargain the listing price way down. Banks typically price their properties at a 20% to 30% discount to begin with, he says. If the property has been on the market for a week or two, don't expect the bank to drop the price; if the listing is older, you might have some wiggle room.

Make sure to follow directions when submitting the offer. "Most listing agents will have instructions on how we want buyers' agents to submit the offer," Mr. Melvin says. Delays can occur when instructions aren't followed.

And don't be surprised if the bank asks you to get approval from its mortgage operation. You often don't have to take the loan from their company, he says, but they may want to get a closer look at your finances to make sure you're a solid buyer.

Write to Amy Hoak at amy.hoak@dowjones.com

Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit

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More In Investing

Posted via web from Jeremy R Erickson

Lions vs Cowboys 9-26-09 Pal Flag Football

{ Posted on 8:51 PM by JR Erickson }
Lions were on fire today, good job Lions!  Click on the link below.

p.s.  pay attention to some of the bonus content added for your enjoyment, Keep your volume up.  If you watched the game, you will know why I added it.  


Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Pent-up "Shadow" inventory, Mortgage crisis stalled?

{ Posted on 10:05 PM by JR Erickson }

Good info about the "Shadow" inventor that is pent-up getting ready to go through the foreclosure process. Like I said in some earlier tweets, there is over 1.2 million loans that are over 90 days late that haven't even started in the foreclosure process. Some analysts say that we will creep down another 6% before we hit the bottom. I am not a pessimist, but I am trying to be real. I hope all this stuff is wrong, and that great things are coming. Stay tuned!

Posted via web from Jeremy R Erickson

Notice of Sale filings are way down, and Notice of Default filings are rising, see the trends here! are trending downward in Ada County, See the trends here!

{ Posted on 7:48 PM by JR Erickson }
As you can see, some of the trends are headed down, but don't let that fool you, some reports, and some of the things that I have been reading indicate that we will have a strong wave of defaults in early November to late november.  Lets hope its is not as bad as some analysts think.  Also notice that the number of defaults compared to the number of Sales are pretty different.  Lots of those properties are getting gobbled up by the people jumping on the band wagon for distressed property purchases.  And some people are getting their loans modified to the point they can stay in the property and get a payment that they can afford.  "Making Home Affordable" programs have helped many people from Short selling their property, and has stopped the foreclosure process.  I have heard of people supporting $1700-$1800 monthly payments get their payments adjusted down to 950 a month (all depending on your monthly income, and other debts).  So make sure that you entertain that avenue before you, or anybody you know jumps on the short sale track when there is other options.

For up to date charts and graphs, and current Ada County default and Notice of sale Recipients just click here!

See and download the full gallery on posterous

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

FHA Will Tighten Credit Standards - WSJ.com

{ Posted on 9:55 AM by JR Erickson }

The Federal Housing Administration, which insures lenders against losses on home mortgages, announced Friday that it would tighten credit requirements but said it has enough reserves to handle expected claims.

FHA

FHA Commissioner David Stevens sees 'no taxpayer bailout' coming.

"There will be no taxpayer bailout," FHA Commissioner David Stevens said.

The agency confirmed that, as of Sept. 30, it would fall short of a legal requirement that it maintain supplementary reserves of 2% of the loans it insures. Those reserves supplement a fund that provides for projected claims over the next 30 years. The extra capital cushion last year was about 3%, down from 6.4% in 2007. The Washington Post reported Friday that the FHA expected to fall short of the 2% minimum, something outside experts have long said was likely.

Mr. Stevens said tighter credit standards would suffice to rebuild the cushion to 2% or more, and that the FHA wouldn't need to raise the premiums borrowers pay or seek an increase in its minimum down-payment requirement of 3.5%.

The FHA has taken a much bigger role in the mortgage market during the past two years, as investors have shied away from home loans that lack government backing. In this year's first half, about 19% of new home mortgages were insured by the FHA, up from about 2% in 2006, according to the trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance.

Under planned rules, the agency said lenders making FHA-insured loans would need to show net worth of at least $1 million, up from $250,000, and further increases might be sought later. The agency is seeking to ensure that lenders have funds available to compensate the FHA if their loans fail to meet quality standards.

For refinancings of FHA loans, the agency plans new rules for verifying income and other quality-control checks. It also will impose a maximum loan value of 125% of the current estimated home value on refinanced loans, in line with government-backed mortgage investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Appraisals will be valid for no more than four months, down from six to 12 months previously. The FHA also plans to change rules aimed at averting pressure on appraisers, making them more consistent with those adopted earlier this year by Fannie and Freddie. Mortgage brokers or bank employees paid on commission won't be allowed to order appraisals.

In addition, the FHA plans to hire a chief risk officer for the first time.

"These are things they should have been doing for a long time," said Tom Lawler, an independent housing economist in Leesburg, Va.

The FHA said it had more than $30 billion of total reserves, including the primary fund and the extra cushion. That equates to 4.4% of the value of loans it insures.

The FHA earlier reported that in July 7.8% of the single-family mortgages it insured were 90 days or more overdue or in the foreclosure process, up from 6.6% a year earlier. For the second quarter, about 8% of all home mortgages were 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure, according to a survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

I thought this was a interesting article, they say that there is no taxpayer bail out, but who else is going to pay for it if their claims exceeds there reserves. Oh please not another bubble!. ( I hope not)

Posted via web from Jeremy R Erickson

Proving you're creditworthy after emerging from Bankruptcy (WSJ)

{ Posted on 11:37 AM by JR Erickson }

Q: I'm applying for a mortgage after going through Chapter 13 bankruptcy four years ago. All my debts were satisfied over a year ago. The lender asked for a letter of explanation regarding the bankruptcy, and I supplied one. Now they want more detail. I've been extremely careful with finances since the bankruptcy. How can I prove myself creditworthy?

--Greensboro, N.C.

A: Despite today's tight credit market, you have already proven yourself creditworthy and should qualify for a mortgage, according to several Greensboro lenders and mortgage brokers.

But you should expect to pay a bit higher interest rate than someone who hasn't been through bankruptcy--perhaps a quarter percent more than the market rate, according to David Gulledge, senior vice president of Cunningham and Company, an independent mortgage banker. You'll also need to document the circumstances surrounding your bankruptcy in detail, as well as your attempts to re-establish your credit.

For instance, if you declared bankruptcy because of illness, you'll need to show doctor bills, as well as proof that you are now better and able to work. If you got in financial trouble while you were married and were jointly responsible for expenses--and are now separated or divorced and no longer liable for them-- you will have to show the legal papers that prove this. If you lost your job, you'll need proof, such as tax records, that you have been steadily employed for at least a year since the bankruptcy.

Ask a Real Estate Question

Send all your housing queries to House Talk columnist June Fletcher atfletcher.june@gmail.com.

Lenders will, of course, check your credit score to see if you have been paying your bills on time since the bankruptcy; be sure to look at it yourself to make sure that information from all your creditors has been reported accurately, and also that all of your creditors have been listed. You're entitled to check your score from the three major reporting agencies, TransUnion, Equifax and Experian, at least once for free every 12 months at AnnualCreditReport.com.

Kerrie Currie, senior loan officer at WR Starkey Mortgage, says you'll need a credit score of at least 620 to be considered for a loan. She adds that to meet underwriting guidelines set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, you must be two years from the discharge date of your bankruptcy or four years from dismissal for a conventional loan. The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) requirements are looser: You need to pay all of your bills on time for a year after declaring bankruptcy. You can also boost your standing with the lender, as well as your credit score, by establishing new accounts and keeping them current, she says.

But understand that even if you fulfill all these mandates, a loan isn't guaranteed. According to mortgage and financial planner John Shaw, some cautious lenders are overlaying their much more stringent guidelines on top of FHA's more lenient ones, even if you've applied for an FHA loan.

Since lenders are likely to remain nervous for some time, I think your best bet is to remain co-operative. Supply whatever information you're asked for to prove you're a good risk. But never forget that you're a customer, and entitled to answers yourself, such as why the information requested is needed, and how long you should expect to wait for loan approval. If you aren't satisfied with the answers, take your business elsewhere.

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Notice of Default and Notice of Sale recordings are way down for Ada County! See the trends here.

{ Posted on 10:54 AM by JR Erickson }
The filings from Ada County are out for the week, and the Notice of defaults are down to the 2nd lowest amount in the last 3 months.  The Notice of Sales are also down too.  From what I can tell in the short run, we are trending downward, but it doesn't take much to make it go back up.  Now that I have over three months data collected from the NOD's and NOS's I think we can conclude that the filings are pretty sporatic, but the data is talking.  We just need to dive further into it.  I think it goes in phases, we have a real high week and then it goes down down down, then we have another high week, and then it goes down down down.. then it happens again.  The problem that I see is the high weeks keep getting higher.  I can't really put a lot into this theory yet until have a couple of months more data. My prediction is that in the next week or two the NOD's will be ski high again, and then we will start over again.    So stay tuned, and tell me what you think, please leave your comments below.


Jeremy Erickson
AdaCountyMarketReport.com


See and download the full gallery on posterous

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Distressed property percentages are slowly dropping in Ada County, See the resale report here!

{ Posted on 11:50 AM by JR Erickson }

Over the past couple of years that I have sent out market reports, I have never been serious about resale data.  I have looked at it and studied it, but I was so focused in New Construction over the past 6 years that I didn't give it much thought.  I have had a paradigm shift, like many others have had in this challenging market.  I want to see the big picture on this Real Estate market, and the only way that I felt I could do that is really dive into all the sales and listing data on both sides of the spectrum for residential real estate.  I have been collecting and sorting (resale) data over the past couple of months to see what would be useful to share with others that are trying to understand the market.  I have created a new Resale Market Report for Ada County.  I think it has opened my eyes to what is really happening out there in the market place.  Enough talk, here is the link to the video that I created.  And I am going to give you a link to download the report in pdf format.  Just click here, and you will be directed to a page so you can download it.  Make sure you look a the bottom of page to see the attachment to click on.     Have a great Week!




Jeremy E

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Ada County Resale Report is almost complete, check out these new slides from the video that is coming soon!

{ Posted on 9:34 PM by JR Erickson }
I have just finished the New resale market Report for Ada County.  I have been collecting some data over the past couple of months getting ready for this release.  I am so excited, even though its in its infancy I think it turned out pretty good.  I am excited to see it shape, and grow as time goes on with new things, and feedback from you.  I now have New Construction, and Resale Reports being distributed out of AdaCountyMarketReport.com on a monthly basis.  All this data that i use is form Intermountain MLS, and is reliable but not guaranteed.  I will be sending out the video pretty soon, so stay tuned.

Jeremy E

See and download the full gallery on posterous

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

NOD's and NOS's for the Week, See the trends here!

{ Posted on 8:32 AM by JR Erickson }
The notice of Defaults are a little on the high side, but not as bad as a couple of weeks ago. NOS's are up from last week too.  To see more info, and to see the current recipients please go to the Distressed Property Reports web page.

See and download the full gallery on posterous

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

September 2009 Ada County New Construction Market Report Charts

{ Posted on 10:06 AM by JR Erickson }
The market report is finished for New Construction, and here are some of the charts and slides from the video that I released earlier.  Stay tuned for the Resale report coming soon.

 

 



 

 



 

 



 

 



 

 



 

 



 

 



 

 



 

 



 

 



 

 



 

 



 

 



 

 

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Sam Robison

{ Posted on 7:21 PM by JR Erickson }

Ada County New Construction Report is finished for September 2009!

{ Posted on 2:52 PM by JR Erickson }
I have just finished the September 2009 Ada County New Construction Market Report.  The sales are up!  we have reached 138 sales, up from 125 last month.   This number was a lot better than expected, we are still continuing to shed inventory down to 832 listings from 844.  I have attached the market report in pdf, and excel format for you to download.  Make sure you click the download link on the bottom of the previewer.  


Jeremy Erickson
AdaCountyMarketReport.com
(208) 991-3606 direct
(208) 379-5717 fax

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Social Media just a fad? watch this video!

{ Posted on 9:57 PM by JR Erickson }

If you think Social Media is stupid and a fad, and you are resisting because its for young people, or its a waist of time, think again! watch this video to see some of the numbers and stats. Its time for you to get on Twitter, Facebook, Friend feed, Posterous, orkut, digg, myspace, youtube, etc. (many more) There has been a shift, and its time to move.


Jeremy Erickson
(208) 991-3606 direct
(208) 379-5717 fax

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Ada County Notice of Sales Recorded updated as of 9/02/2009

{ Posted on 9:16 PM by JR Erickson }

Notice of sale Recordings are down from last week.  For more information, please got to AdaCountyMarketReport.com and click on Distressed Property Reports Page.

Jeremy E

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Ada County Notice of Defaults recorded "trends chart" as of 9/02/2009

{ Posted on 8:59 PM by JR Erickson }

Last weeks recordings where crazy hi, I'm glad that we are down to at least some normal numbers (normal for the last 3 months). Go to AdaCountyMarketReport.com and click on distressed property reports to see in more detail.
 
Jeremy E

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson