12/28/2009 Notice of Default and Notice of Sale filings for Ada County

{ Posted on 7:11 PM by JR Erickson }

The Notice of Sale and Notice of Defaults are out for the week.  For current market trends and past files to view and download.  Just click on the links below.  I hope you all have a Amazing New year, 2010 here we come!
You can also find this post and much more at AdaCountyMarketReport.com


Jeremy Erickson
Ada County Market Report

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

12/21/2009 Ada County Notice of Default and Notice of Sales

{ Posted on 9:50 AM by JR Erickson }

The Notice of Sale and Notice of Defaults are out for the week.  For current market trends and past files to view and download.  Just click on the links below.  Have a Merry Christmas!

You can also find this post and much more at AdaCountyMarketReport.com


Jeremy Erickson
Ada County Market Report

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Yo Santa... Slammin down your big red bag!

{ Posted on 10:29 AM by JR Erickson }
Yo Santa by The Ericksons  
Download now or listen on posterous
02 Yo Santa.mp3 (3673 KB)

Ho Ho said the Jolly fat man, I am here to rock your band stand, coming from the north on my big red sleigh, rocking your house one christmas day!...
Jingle Jangle bells I'm ringing got more than rhymes than I bringing. down the chimney do my funky dance know, shaking my booty in my big red pants now!
On the roof I got my reindeer posse, don't like it when I get to bossy, look around and what do I see, round eyes peaking out at me!
You better be in your bed, if your not I will thump your head, slamming down my big red bag, no toys for you scalawags....scalawags.....scalawags!

Music by Brandon Erickson
lyrics by: Brandon Erickson & Jeremy Erickson

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Video from the tallest Building in the world in Dubai

{ Posted on 12:07 PM by JR Erickson }
Tags : ,
This is amazing, at any minute this guy could be swept away from the wind.  The worlds Tallest Tower/building in Dubai.  I am glad they spend 4 Billion on this building so we all could see this video.

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

11/30/2009 Weekly Ada County Notice of Sale and Notice of Default tracking

{ Posted on 10:30 AM by JR Erickson }

The Notice of Sale and Notice of Defaults are out for the week.  For current market trends and past files to view and download.  Just click on the links below.

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

2006 BMW 750Li $28,500 62k miles

{ Posted on 8:42 PM by JR Erickson }

Price $28500
Year 2006
Model 750Li
Body Style Sedan
Trim Loaded
Engine 4.8 V8
Transmission Auto
Drive Rear Wheel Drive
Wheels Aluminum
Exterior Color Silver
Interior Color Black Leather
Mileage 62,600
Vin WBAHN835X6DT29975
Stock 09073
Photo Gallery www.Riversidemotorsport.com



As BMW's flagship sedan, the 7 Series offers supreme levels of luxury and performance.  Powering this 750 model is a 4.8-liter V8 with bi-VANOS dual variable valve timing, Valvetronic technology that infinitely adjusts valve lift and a two-stage intake system that matches intake manifold length to engine speed.

Thusly equipped, this V8 makes 360 horsepower and 360 pound-feet of torque.

Once you step up to the super-luxury sedan segment, you expect prospective cars to amaze you with their fabulous levels of luxury and safety, and the 7 Series does not disappoint in these areas: The front seats offer up to 20-way power adjustments and the rear seats give you 14-way adjustment. And you can heat or cool just about any surface inside the car. The BMW 7 Series also offers a high level of competence when pushed hard on twisty roads -- something that can't be said of most of its competitors.

The most important innovation contained in the 7 Series is also the one that gives us the most pause: the iDrive system. While able to manage a lot of functions -- onboard telematics, including GPS navigation, Internet access and the BMW Assist system (for emergencies), as well as climate and stereo functions -- iDrive has a steep learning curve. Basic adjustments can be made rather easily, but more complex functions require time with the owner's manual and patience to learn. If you have always wanted to own a large, luxurious sedan, the 2006 BMW 7 Series is for you. 

Powertrains and Performance

This 750Li is powered by a 4.8-liter V8 with 360 horsepower and 360 pound-feet of torque, along with impressive mileage ratings of 18 city/26 highway. 


Included on this model are four-wheel antilock disc brakes with proportioning, cornering and stability enhancements, BMW's Dynamic Stability Control system, front side-impact airbags, head protection airbags for front and rear occupants, and active knee protection.

Interior Design and Special Features

Inside, the BMW 7 Series cabin has a clean appearance, thanks to the minimal center stack controls. The iDrive system was designed to consolidate the vehicle's control systems into one easy-to-use interface, but even with this year's usability upgrades, the learning curve is steep. Backseat passengers will be just as comfortable as those in front, as the rear seatback contours perfectly to support your lower back and shoulders, while headroom and legroom are abundant.

Driving Impressions

Even at high speeds, the 7 Series cabin is devoid of engine and wind noise. Steering feel is typical BMW with relatively high weighting and excellent feedback. Body roll is held in check during cornering via the standard Active Roll Stabilization system. While it may be a stretch to call such a large car nimble, it's easy to confuse the 2006 BMW 7 Series for a sport sedan on the open road.

Riverside Motor Sports, LLC
11760 W. Executive Dr Suite 120
Phone: (208) 376-2782
Fax: (208) 376-2784
Idaho Dealer License #1021

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

11/24/2009 Ada County Notice of Sale and Notice of Defaults Posted

{ Posted on 8:37 PM by JR Erickson }

The Notice of Sale and Notice of Defaults are out for the week.  For current market trends and past files to view and download.  Just click on the links below.

You can also find this post and much more at AdaCountyMarketReport.com

Thanks, have a wonderful thanksgiving!

Jeremy Erickson
Ada County Market Report

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

The Healthiest And Unhealthiest States - Forbes.com

{ Posted on 9:39 AM by JR Erickson }

Lists & Rankings

The Healthiest And Unhealthiest States

Rebecca Ruiz, 11.17.09, 12:01 AM EST

New England states top this new set of rankings, while the South still lags.

See: America's Healthiest And Unhealthiest States America's Health RankingsTM: The Only 20-Year Scorecard of Our Nation's Health -->

This annual ranking, published by the United Health Foundation, looks at 22 indicators of health, including everything from how many children receive recommended vaccinations, to obesity and smoking rates, to cancer deaths. (Insurer UnitedHealth Group funds the foundation.) Scores for each state are determined by gathering data from a variety of government and nongovernmental databases and then calculating how much each state is better or worse than the national average for each measure. Click here to see the report. The below chart lists the final results in addition to rank changes in specific categories over the past 20 years.
5New Hampshire
10Rhode Island
17North Dakota
18New Jersey
20South Dakota
25New York
31New Mexico
37North Carolina
42West Virginia
46South Carolina
Top 10 SmokingBottom 10 Smoking
1Rhode Island41West Virginia
5Delaware45South Carolina
8New Hampshire48Wisconsin
Top 10 ObesityBottom 10 Obesity
2Rhode Island41South Carolina
4Florida44South Dakota
Overall Change - Top 10Overall Change - Bottom 10
1New York41Louisiana
2Vermont42South Carolina
4New Hampshire44Arkansas
6New Jersey46Alabama
9Washington49West Virginia

I'm going to Vermont to get skinny!

Posted via web from Jeremy R Erickson

Some experts predict BSU could be Fiesta Bowl bound

{ Posted on 12:35 AM by JR Erickson }

I don't even know if this is possible, but I am sure glad that some people are talking about it. Two non BCS teams making it to Bowl championships? Go Broncos!

Posted via web from Jeremy R Erickson

George Fox University and Tinker Toys

{ Posted on 11:12 PM by JR Erickson }
I took a two hour assessment class at George Fox University to see if I wanted to joint their program.  One of the activities was to erect a tower with Tinker toys, while collaborating  with your assigned group (cohort).  We had 20 minutes of planning, then 4 minutes to build.  We had a good time, lots of fun.  We lost by 4 inches, even though our tower was engineered so much better than the other group, we still lost.  The objective was to make sure that it stood for over 1 min after the 4 minutes was up, and whomever had the tallest tower won.  The other team just started putting tinker toys on top of each other until their's was higher.  We still had fun, and we learned a lot.  We went for the cork screw design so the weight of the tower would counter balance while equally applying pressure to hold the tower together.  

GFU Tinker Toys

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Notice of Default and Notice of Sale filings are up in Ada County!

{ Posted on 10:32 AM by JR Erickson }
The Notice of Default and Notice of Sale filings are out for the week ending 11-16-2009.  click the links below to see the trends and to download the current list of NOD's and NOS's.  Have a great week!

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

New updated JRerickson.com website

{ Posted on 10:28 PM by JR Erickson }
I just got done migrating my domain over to a new registar, and I have made the jump to a hosted wordpress blog/website.  I have learned a lot about wordpress over the past 6 months and I like it a lot.  I still have a lot to learn, but I like how its going so far.  JRerickson.com is online, and adacountymarketreport.com will be switched over soon.  I have it on a free wordpress.com blog at the moment, but I have been spending some time building the new one.  I will have it soon!

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

BSU vs Idaho 11-14-09

{ Posted on 12:03 PM by JR Erickson }
Jeremy and I got a chance to go to the BSU game vs Idaho.  It was a blast, and we were on the 50 yard line, 10 rows up from the bottom.   It was a fantastic game, thanks to the Idaho vandals getting a huge whooping! 

BSU vs Idaho 11-14-09


Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Home price trends in 153 Metro

{ Posted on 10:52 AM by JR Erickson }
Take a look at the home price trends in a 153 metro areas.

Download now or preview on posterous
HomePricesQ03.pdf (108 KB)

Notice of Sale, and Notice of Defaults are up from last week, but still low from previous weeks

{ Posted on 6:31 PM by JR Erickson }
Good news everyone! the Tax credit has been extended for First time homebuyers.  There is also a tax credit for repeat buyers of $6500.  It seems that congress knows that the economy is still pretty fragile, and if the home buying stops it might send it back into a deep spiral (see the press release below).  Filings are up from last week, but still down from other months.  

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Senators have struck a deal to extend a popular tax credit for home buyers beyond those buying their first house, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's office said Wednesday.

Legislators also have agreed to extend the tax credit through the end of April, according to a Reuters report.

An $8,000 credit for first-time home buyers is set to expire at the end of November. Under a compromise reached by senators, the credit would be expanded to those who have lived in their home for five consecutive years, a Reid spokeswoman said.

The credit for repeat buyers would be $6,500.

The credit reportedly would be available for individuals making up to $125,000 a year and couples earning up to $225,000 per year, up from the current income limits of $75,000 and $150,000, respectively.

Reid wants to attach the tax-credit measure to a bill that would extend unemployment benefits.

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit Extended to April! Credit extended to repeat buyers too $6500

{ Posted on 6:12 PM by JR Erickson }

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Senators have struck a deal to extend a popular tax credit for home buyers beyond those buying their first house, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's office said Wednesday.

Legislators also have agreed to extend the tax credit through the end of April, according to a Reuters report.

An $8,000 credit for first-time home buyers is set to expire at the end of November. Under a compromise reached by senators, the credit would be expanded to those who have lived in their home for five consecutive years, a Reid spokeswoman said.

The credit for repeat buyers would be $6,500.

The credit reportedly would be available for individuals making up to $125,000 a year and couples earning up to $225,000 per year, up from the current income limits of $75,000 and $150,000, respectively.

Reid wants to attach the tax-credit measure to a bill that would extend unemployment benefits.

Call us for more information

Troy and Jeremy


Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Distressed Property Reports Pages received a few new updates.

{ Posted on 9:09 PM by JR Erickson }
I have just added a new "Intro Video" to the Distressed property reports page.  You can watch it here, or go to the Distressed Property reports page to view it too.  I also added a  Distressed Property Information Guide to give you some good info.  You can find all these new updates at AdaCountyMarketreport.com by clicking on Distressed Property Reports Pages.


Jeremy e

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

The foreclosure process

{ Posted on 4:08 PM by JR Erickson }

This is a good document to help you understand the timeline of the foreclosure process.

The foreclosure process

Even if you miss one mortgage payment, you are in danger of having the foreclosure process begin. Now, this does not necessarily mean you are inevitably going to be foreclosed upon, but the mortgage company is going to tell you that they have not received your payment and that you should send it immediately.

Typically, you will get these letters for two to three months if you do not make a payment, and nothing else will happen. If you make good on your mortgage payments, nothing else should occur and everything should be okay as far as your mortgage goes. However, it might go on your credit report that you have been past due on your mortgage payments.

Let's now see how the foreclosure process unfolds if you do not meet your obligations:

1. Notice to accelerate

Once you are sixty days past due, you will get what is called a notice to accelerate. At this point, you will need to bring the loan current and nothing else will do, usually, to stop the foreclosure process. You will need to pay the past amount plus any late fees they assess you.

You may also receive a threatening letter saying that if you do not pay by a certain date, they may accelerate the due date of the loan and start the foreclosure process. The letter may also tell you that if you do not pay the amount past due and they accelerate the due date of the loan, you will also be responsible for any attorney fees added to the delinquent amount.

2. The demand letter

If you do not respond by paying the full amount due on the date the mortgage company has established in their notice to accelerate, they will hire an attorney and this attorney will forward you what's called a demand letter.This letter formally notifies you that if you don't bring your loan current immediately, the foreclosure process is going to go ahead within the court system.

3. Notice of default (Click here to see Local Ada County NOD's)

If you do not respond to the previous demand letter by paying the full amount due plus any attorney fees, the lender will then file a formal foreclosure notice with the court. This is a notice of default, and will list the entire amount you need to pay. You have about twenty to thirty days to respond to this judgment before the foreclosure process proceeds further.

4. The notice of sale (Click here to see Local Ada County NOS's)

If you have not previously responded to the demand letter or to the notice of foreclosure, you will be given a notice of sale after twenty to thirty days have gone by, the period of time you were given to respond to the notice of foreclosure. This particular notice simply sets the sheriff's auction date, and your house will be sold at auction at that point.

Foreclosure information: stop home foreclosure

 Be aware that this is the foreclosure process the mortgage lender takes if you do not respond at any other point in the process.With the exception of the last step, the notice of sale, you have the ability to stop home foreclosure, in some cases, as long as you stay in communication with the bank.

It does not necessarily mean you are not going to lose your home, but be aware that the bank does not want to foreclose on you any more than you want the foreclosure process to happen. Therefore, to help stop home foreclosure, establish communication with the bank at the very first step of the process, even before you have missed your first payment if you know it is going to happen.Therefore, to help stop home foreclosure, establish communication with the bank at the very first step of the process, even before you have missed your first payment if you know it is going to happen. They may be willing to work with you to accept partial payments right up front until you've caught up, AS LONG AS you keep in constant communication with them

Once you get to the point in the foreclosure process where they cannot accept partial payments, the notice to accelerate, you will have no other recourse but to make full payment or lose your house. Therefore, it is in your best interests to keep in constant contact with your mortgage lender once you know you're going to have trouble meeting your mortgage payments.

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Notice of Default & Notice of Sale Filings 10/19/2009

{ Posted on 12:43 PM by JR Erickson }

For more information about the Real Estate Market in Ada county, Go to AdaCountyMarketReport.com.  

If you have any questions on my data, or just in general please send me a email at jeremy@adacountymarketreport.com


Jeremy E

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Builders Grounded by Land Prices - WSJ.com

{ Posted on 10:44 AM by JR Erickson }

Glimmers of a home-price recovery mean that some home builders may soon return to the black. But, with prime land plots tough to find, investors shouldn't set their sights on healthy profit margins.

Over the past few years, many builders have shed some of their best land holdings and hoarded cash to strengthen balance sheets. Many expected to be able to restock at low prices when competitors fold, conscious that the last big property bust in the early 1990s led to plenty of cheap land sales.

[homebuilders and land prices]

It hasn't yet worked out that way. Even with many private builders going bankrupt, the supply of desirable lots has run dry.

That's partly because many lenders who have taken possession of land are wary of selling while the market is soft. So land costs are rising in locations where builders are most keen to invest.

Take California, where the likes of D.R. Horton and KB Home have a sizable presence. In prime locations, prices of finished lots have risen 10% to 30% in the last four months, according to Jeff Spindler of land brokerage Park Place Land Advisors.

Publicly listed builders have accounted for the majority of bidders at auctions of such finished lots, Mr. Spindler says. While land prices in remote areas have been more stable, major builders have been focused on densely populated areas where homes are expected to sell quickly.

The risk is that builders are betting on higher housing prices to justify paying up for land. But if home prices don't keep pace, builders could see margin growth stifled. Citigroup's Josh Levin says the median gross margin for public builders is around 13%, compared with roughly 20% before the bubble.

Builders with the least land could be expected to buy most aggressively. KB Home, for instance, has land sufficient for only 3.3 years worth of building needs based on construction rates over the past year, according to Barclays Capital's Megan McGrath. That compares with an industry average of about 5.1 years.

And those estimates could exaggerate the true supply, since they include both finished lots and raw land. The latter requires thousands of dollars in additional investment per lot, so it's unlikely to be used until home prices increase substantially.

Horton may also feel pressure to refill its land bank. The company still has 5.4 years of supply, but the number of owned lots has fallen 32% in the year through June, Ms. McGrath estimates.

And yet, stock valuations suggest hopes for a smooth return to profitability. Ms. McGrath says Horton trades at 1.5 times tangible book value, while KB Home is at 1.9 times.

Those are roughly in-line with the industry's long-term average of 1.6 times. But that long-term average mostly reflects years when retained earnings were causing book values to grow.

With major builders still bleeding red, their stocks are dependent on a swift home-price rebound.

Write to John Jannarone at john.jannarone@wsj.com

Posted via web from Jeremy R Erickson

Notice of Sale filings at the highest peak in over 4 months!

{ Posted on 4:33 PM by JR Erickson }
Notice of Sale Filings were way high today, and the Notice of defaults were average.  I think we are going to continue seeing the high levels of NOS filings reported.  There is a huge glut of pent-up properties getting ready to come down the pipe.  Click on the link below to get copy of filings in excel format.  

(full link below)

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Ada County Market Reports are ready! New Construction & Resale.

{ Posted on 8:37 PM by JR Erickson }
Both Market report videos for Ada County are complete!  I am attaching the you tube videos for your viewing pleasure.  Also remember if you are not already a subscriber, you can click here to get  "All Access" to the same reports that I used to create the videos, and more.  If you have any questions, please let me know.  Thanks, have a great month!

New Construction Market Report

Resale Market Report

Jeremy Erickson

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson

Monthly New Construction Sales Data Report for September 2009 Ada County

{ Posted on 1:42 PM by JR Erickson }

If you were not able to view the last tweet, with link to Google Docs, I am attaching a excel spread sheet of the data for the Sept New Construction Sales for 2009.  I haven't finished the complete report yet, but wanted to give you guys a heads up on what is coming.  Make sure that you click the download button below the iPaper viewer to download a copy to your hard drive.  138 sales for the month, Inventory Levels are way down, 125-150 range continues to be the hot range,,, Stay tuned for the Ada County Market Report coming soon!

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson


{ Posted on 2:02 PM by JR Erickson }

2 terabyte drives and I am running low on space. HD video hogs bytes! or bytes hogs!

Posted via web from Jeremy R Erickson

Loan Modification Frequently Asked Questions - HUD

{ Posted on 10:01 PM by JR Erickson }

Loan Modification
Frequently Asked Questions

- -
 Information by State
 Print version
Related Information
 -   Loss Mitigation Policy & Guidance
 -   NSC FAQ Table of Contents
 -   Servicing Guidance

A Loan Modification is a permanent change in one or more of the terms of a mortgagor's loan, allows the loan to be reinstated, and results in a payment the mortgagor can afford.

Question 1: In utilizing the Loan Modification option to bring an asset current, can the mortgagee include all fees and corporate advances?

Answer: Mortgagee Letter 2008-21 states in part: Legal fees and related foreclosure costs for work actually completed and applicable to the current default episode may be capitalized into the modified principal balance.

Question 2: May a mortgagee perform an interior inspection of the property if they have concerns about property condition?

Answer: Yes, per Mortgagee Letter 2000-05, page 20, the mortgagee may conduct any review it deems necessary to verify that the property has no physical conditions which adversely impact the mortgagor's continued ability to support the modified mortgage payment.

Question 3: Can a mortgagee include late charges in the Loan Modification?

Answer: Mortgagee Letter 2008-21 states that accrued late charges should be waived by the mortgagee at the time of the Loan Modification.

Question 4: When utilizing a Loan Modification option, can a mortgagee capitalize an escrow advance for Homeowner's Association fees?

Answer: HUD Handbook 4330.1 REV-5, Paragraph 2-1, Section B, Escrow Obligations states: Mortgagees must also escrow funds for those items which, if not paid, would create liens on the property positioned ahead of the FHA-insured mortgage.

Question 5: Is there a new basis interest rate which mortgagees may assess when completing a Loan Modification?

Answer: Yes, Mortgagee Letter 2008-21 states that the new basis interest rate is 200 points above the monthly average yield on U.S. Treasury Securities, adjusted to a constant maturity of 10 years.

Question 6: Will HUD subordinate a Partial Claim, should a mortgagor subsequently default and qualify for a Loan Modification?

Answer: If a mortgagor subsequently defaults and qualifies for a Loan Modification, HUD will subordinate the Partial Claim.

Question 7: Are mortgagees required to perform an escrow analysis when completing a Loan Modification?

Answer: Yes, mortgagees are to perform a retroactive escrow analysis at the time the Loan Modification to ensure that the delinquent payments being capitalized reflect the actual escrow requirements required for those months capitalized.

Question 8: Is the mortgagor eligible for the upfront premium refund at payoff of a modified loan?

Answer: It depends upon when the closing date occurred. For assets closed:

After July 1, 1991 but before January 1, 2001, the 7-year unearned premium refund schedule shown in Mortgagee Letter 1994-1 remains in effect,

On or after January 1, 2001 that are subsequently refinanced, the 5-year refund schedule shown in the attachment of Mortgagee Letter 2000-46 applies, or

On or after December 8, 2004, refunds of upfront MIP are eliminated except, when the mortgagor refinances to another FHA insured mortgage. The refund schedule attached to Mortgagee Letter 2005-03 has been modified to a 3-year period.

Question 9: Can a mortgagee qualify an asset for the Loan Modification option when the mortgagor is unemployed, the spouse is employed, but the spouse name is not on the mortgage?

Answer: Based upon this scenario, the mortgagee should conduct a financial review of the household income and expenses to determine if surplus income is sufficient to meet the new modified mortgage payment, but insufficient to pay back the arrearage. Once this process has been completed the mortgagee should then consult with their legal counsel to determine if the asset is eligible for a Loan Modification since the spouse is not on the original mortgage.


Good Q & A to clear up any confusion on Loan Modifications

Posted via web from Jeremy R Erickson

U.S. Building Market Intelligence, October 2009

{ Posted on 1:04 PM by JR Erickson }

John Burns Real Estate Consulting
U.S. Building Market Intelligence™

October 7, 2009 

The Housing Market is about to Become Even More Oversupplied

While both the media and stock investors believe that housing has bottomed, they are unaware of the massive supply of homes that are already in the foreclosure process that will certainly drive home prices down even further when they are sold. We have been projecting a "W" shaped recovery for some time, and we are becoming even more convinced that we are right. The shape of the second leg down is almost completely dependent on the level of government intervention that will take place.

For a number of reasons, banks have not been aggressively taking title to homes and selling them, which has resulted in very few distressed sales in comparison to the actual level of distress in the market. This delay in REO sales, along with historically low mortgage rates and an $8,000 tax credit, has helped to stabilize the housing market - temporarily.

It is very clear that price stabilization is temporary unless something is done. Here are some facts to help project what housing will be like in 2010:

  • 13.54% of the 44.7 million mortgages tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association are delinquent.

  • 7.57 million homeowners are delinquent, applying the same percentage to the 11.2 million mortgages not tracked by the MBA (55.9 million total mortgages in the U.S.). That means that 10% of all homeowners in the country are delinquent.

  • Based on historical trend analysis by Amherst Securities, 6.94 million homes that are already delinquent will be liquidated, which is more than a one year supply of distressed sales poised to hit the market sometime in 2010 and 2011. During Q1 2005, that figure was only 1.27 million.

  • Defaults continue to grow at the rate of approximately 300,000 per month, assuring that the number of distressed sales will grow and will continue through 2012.

2009 Government Intervention

Government intervention to date has been extremely helpful in preventing an even more dramatic decline in home prices. As shown in the chart at right, housing demand has only fallen to "normal" levels and stabilized there. Without historically low mortgage rates, support for Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and FHA, and an $8,000 tax credit, how far would sales have fallen this year and what would that decline in demand have done to pricing?


Demand needs to continue to be stimulated to bring down supply, particularly while the country continues to lose jobs. Without continued government intervention, home prices will plummet, banks and the GSEs will continue to lose money, and the economy has virtually no chance of increasing overall employment in 2010.

Economic Growth............................................................................D
Economic growth deteriorated this month as the economy remains very weak. Annual job losses continued, marking one of the worst losses in 60 years. The headline unemployment rate increased to 9.8%, after reaching 9.7% last month. Mass layoff events - defined as a cut of 50 or more jobs from a single employer - also increased this month, and are up nearly 43% year-over-year. Currently, it takes job seekers twice the normal length of time to find employment. The CPI (all items) decreased at a slower rate in August, recording a decline of 1.5%, while the Core CPI (minus food and energy) showed an increase of 1.4%. The final second-quarter GDP growth rate is at -0.7%, which is a significant improvement from the -6.4% decline in the first quarter.

Leading Indicators...........................................................................C-
Many leading indicators continue to improve, and suggest that the worst of the recession is behind us. The Leading Economic Index 6-month growth rate rose in August to its highest level since early 2004. The ECRI Leading Index - an indicator of future U.S. growth - has increased almost 21% since the beginning of the year - the largest growth rate since 1971. Stocks continued to rise through September and the four major indices now range from -10% to +2% year-over-year. The S&P Homebuilding Index rose in August, increasing 14% from the previous month, but remains down 5% year-over-year and down 72% from its peak in July 2005. The Net Employment Outlook turned negative for only the second time in the 20-year history of the index (the first was last quarter), as more employers that were surveyed foresaw staff levels decreasing than increasing. The average hours worked per week by Americans declined slightly in September, reaching its lowest levels on record, partly due to furloughs forced upon both government and private sector employees. The price of crude oil declined to a monthly average of $69.46 per barrel in September, representing a 2% month-over-month decline.

Affordability improved this month as both mortgage rates and the median resale price fell compared to last month. Currently, our housing-cost-to-income ratio has fallen to 26.7%, which is near the lowest level since we began calculating the index in 1981. Due to the correction in home prices and low mortgage rates, owning a home is now essentially the same cost as renting, making it favorable for first-time home buyers to purchase a home. Household income has fallen 6% year-over-year to $52,856 as a result of job losses and furloughs. Despite the decline, the median-home-price-to-income ratio has fallen to 3.3, which is now equal to the historical average. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell again in September, reaching 5.04% by month-end, while adjustable mortgage rates reached 4.52% at September month-end. The Fed's overnight lending target rate remains at a range of 0.00% to 0.25%, which is the lowest level on record. The share of ARM applications increased to 5.6% in the last week of August, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. However, the share of ARM applications remains extremely low when compared to peak levels above 35% of total applications in early 2005.

Consumer Behavior..........................................................................D-
Consumer behavior was mixed this month. Consumer confidence declined after increasing last month, falling to 53 - far below the historical average of 97. Consumer sentiment increased in September to 73.5, reaching its highest level since January 2008. The Consumer Comfort Index also increased in August to -46.4. The personal savings rate has fallen in the last two months after spiking at 6.9% in May. The U.S. net worth increased nearly two trillion dollars in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. This represents the first increase in net worth in almost two years, and is largely due to recent large gains experienced in the stock market. Despite the recent improvement, the second quarter year-over-year decline is the third worst on record in the 50-year history of this data point, losing $7.4 trillion of wealth in the past year. Both unemployment and inflation increased this month, resulting in a rising Misery Index (the sum of the two rates).

Existing Home Market.......................................................................D+
The existing home market remains weak yet seems to be stabilizing. Seasonally adjusted annual resale activity in August declined almost 3% from last month to 5.1 million homes, an improvement of 3% compared to one year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The rolling 12-month count of resale sales activity has increased for the second month in a row. The national median resale price fell to $177,500, and has declined 12% year-over-year. Weak consumer confidence and increased foreclosure sales continue to put downward pressure on resale prices. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks paired sales, fell 15% in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the second quarter of 2008. In August, the number of unsold homes declined sharply to 8.5 months of supply yet remains elevated compared to history. Pending home sales volume increased this month, and represents a 12% year-over-year gain. As of the second quarter, 32% of all homes with a mortgage were worth less than the original value of the mortgage.

New Home Market............................................................................D
A few components of the new home market improved this month. Builder confidence increased in September to a Housing Market Index rating of 19 - the third consecutive month of an increasing index. The inventory of unsold homes continued to improve and has fallen to 7.3 months of supply. Seasonally adjusted new home sales are down 3% year-over-year and are down 69% from a peak of nearly 1.4 million annual sales in July 2005. The rolling 12-month count of new home sales was flat compared to last month - the first time since 2005 it hasn't declined from the previous month. The median single-family new home price dropped sharply to $195,200 in August from July's $215,600 median - representing an 11.7% year-over-year decline.

Housing Supply.............................................................................F
Seasonally adjusted total permits increased to 579,000 as a result of a large jump in multifamily permits, while single-family permits declined slightly. Seasonally adjusted total new home starts decreased in August to 479,000, due to a 3% drop in single-family starts, and are down 22% from one year ago.

Data Current Through October 6, 2009

Overall Grade

Economic Growth
These are the best indicators of how the economy is currently performing.
Real GDP (annual rate) -0.7% D+
Employment Growth (1-year Change)
   - Non-ag Payroll, NSA -5,813,000 D-
Employment Growth Rate
   - Non-ag Payroll, NSA -4.2% D-
Unemployment Rate 9.8% F
   Average Length of Unemployment (Weeks) 26.2
   Median Length of Unemployment (Weeks) 17.3
   % of Labor Force Unemployed 27 weeks and over 3.5%
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims   530,000
Mass Layoff Events, SA (YOY % Change) 42.6% D+
Productivity 6.6% B-
Retail Sales -8.5% F
   Core CPI 1.4% A-
   Full CPI -1.5% B-
Personal Income Growth, nominal -2.4% F
Federal Deficit (last 12 mos., $mil curr.) -$1,520,441 F
U.S. Immigration as a % of Total Population 0.4%
Total Population Growth 1.0%
Total Households 112,119,000
   - Growth Rate 0.8% D-
Owned Households   75,607,000
   - Growth Rate -0.1% D
Rented Households   36,512,000
   - Growth Rate 2.8% B

Leading Indicators
These have all proven to be predictable early indicators of the direction of economic growth.
Leading Econ. Index (Ann. Growth Rate Last 6 Mos.) 8.9% B-
ECRI Leading Index 20.8% A+
Manpower Net Employment Outlook -2% F
U.S. Vistage CEO Confidence Index 69%
CEO Economic Outlook Survey 19%
U.S. Average Hours Worked per Week 33.0
Temporary Employed Workers -30.2% F
Corporate Profit Growth (pre-tax) -10.9% D
Residential Investment as % of GDP (nominal) 2.4% F
Interest Rate Spread
10-year Treasury 3.43%
2-year Treasury 0.98%
   Interest Rate Spread 2.45% B+
3-month LIBOR 0.30%
3-month Treasury 0.12%
   TED Spread 0.18% B
Stock Market (Return over last 12 months)
   Dow Jones -10% C-
   S&P 500 -9% D+
   NASDAQ 2% C
   Wilshire 5000 -8% D+
   S&P Super Homebuilding -5% C-
Tougher Standards on Business Loans - Large Firms 32% D+
Tougher Standards on Business Loans - Small Firms 34% D+
Crude Oil Price (Current $) $69.46 D+
ISM Manufacturing Index 52.9 C
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index 51.3 C-

These statistics are probably the most important indicators of short-term housing market performance.
Conforming Mortgage Rates (contract rate; an additional 0.6 - 1.0 points are also paid up front by the borrower)
Housing Cycle Barometer 1.2 A-
US Median Home Payment / Income Ratio 26.7%
US Median Home Price / Income Ratio 3.3 C
Mortgage Rates, Fixed 5.04% A+
Mortgage Rates, Adjustable 4.52% B+
   Fixed/Adjustable Spread 0.52% F
   Fixed/10-year Spread 1.61% C
Fed Funds Rate 0.15%
Percentage of Adjust. Loans 5.6% A-
Equity/Owned Home (Current $) $104,096 C
Debt % in Home (LTV) 56.9% F
Median Household Income $52,599
   - Growth Rate, nominal -6.0% F

Consumer Behavior
Consumer attitudes correlate well with short-term housing sales performance. Consumer income growth, debt levels and job prospects affect the long-term outlook for housing sales.
Consumer Confidence Index 53.1 D-
Consumer Sentiment Index 73.5 D+
Consumer Comfort Index -46.4 F
Revolving Cons. Credit per Household $7,601
   - Growth Rate -7.9% A+
Personal Savings Rate 4.2% D+
U.S. Net Worth Growth Rate -12.3% F
Financial Obligation Ratio 18.1% D
Misery Index (Unemployment + Inflation) 8.20 C+

Existing Home Market
Sales volumes correlate well with the Housing Cycle calculations, and boost the trade up New Home sales market.
S&P/Case-Shiller® U.S. Price Index (YOY % Change) -14.9% F
NAR Single-Family Median Home Price $177,500
NAR Single-Family Annual Price Appreciation -12.1% F
Freddie Mac Annual Price Appreciation -4.5% F
Annual Sales Volume, SA 5,100,000 B-
Existing Home Inventory for Sale, SA 3,622,000 D

Posted via email from Jeremy R Erickson